Since the final episode will focus on Desmond, it is very likely that the cause of the crash is related to its past history (his arrival on the island and its three years of isolation) or present ( he lived after fleeing the station Swan) ... That's how I see things:
Desmond goes back to the survivors with new crucial information about the island ... In surveying the island, he discovered other boats (in addition to her own and that of the team Rousseau), or had stranded in the jungle ... And the scene, clues to the cause of all these shipwrecks ... He will then speak at length with Locke ...
Locke will then in turn tell him of his recent discoveries about the hatch ... He will then explain Desmond what happened when the countdown is down to zero : hieroglyphics, the noise of machinery that sets off the lockdown, etc. ...
By comparing their findings, Locke and Desmond will realize that their information is consistent and lead to the same Track: the basement of the hatch ! It was from there that they will finally find answers to their questions and they discover the source of many crashes and shipwrecks will be discovered!
They will then decide to blow up the concrete wall near which the key was drawn to Jack! Eko will ask Charlie to take him to the place where the rest of dynamite, and they will then blow up the wall! (Cf. planing hours produced)
Behind the wall, they discover a huge device to control the electromagnetic fluctuations of the island (the same one we had intended to start lorsqu'apparaîssaient the hieroglyphics on the countdown) ! Incidentally, this device is capable of causing a plane crash or the sinking of a ship ... How? In the drawing like a magnet? By disrupting the navigation system (EMP effects)? The debate remains open about it ...
fact remains that the noose is tightening ... Our survivors will discover that many crashes / wrecks that occurred during those years depends in reality the pressure or not the button ! In this way, those who have implemented the system (members of the DHARMA Initiative) ensure that the fate of hundreds of people depend on the decision of one person at a particular time when the countdown to descent zero (accidentally or not) and a plane / boat is in the area ...
Desmond was the only occupant of the Swan station when the accident, the crash of Flight 815 would be due to a non-pressure switch (probably unintentional) by Desmond?
That's my assumption ... At first glance, this seems not very realistic, but if this assumption is more or less accurate, it will still see how the writers present the thing ... But nevertheless, at this stage of the series, I find this assumption quite plausible ... See for yourself ... ;)
Sources:
http://lost-media.com/modules.php?name=coppermine&file=thumbnails&album=1065
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y275/ FeliciaM7/LOST.gif
http://www.spoilerfix.com/lost.php
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