Card Anniversary Of Death

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Card Anniversary Of Death

China save Does capitalism ?

On October 14, 2009 by Christophe Bys

United States, we begin to talk about big recession to discuss the sharp decline in activity following the stock market crash last fall. One figure to summarize the scale: they are 7.6 million jobs were destroyed during it. If one believes the majority of economists at the National Association of Business Economists in the United States, it will wait until 2012 for all unemployed people have found a job (one third of the economists expect the same association that it was not until 2013 that the effect of the great recession will be cleared in employment). What worried the U.S. executive and legislative branches, which will come before voters between now and then.

CAUTIONS MATIGNON

The recession is over, growth should start slowly, but it should leave. Beginning with the industrial production in France in August which confirmed the tentative recovery in July. The trend is confirmed by the OECD has released its leading indicators. Note: France and Italy are both countries that could experience a phase of "growth potential".

While prudence, Prime Minister François Fillon suggests a growth rate of 1% in 2010. It is true that one wonders if because of the economic analysis or policy by moderating the rate of growth to come. The government has no incentive to announce too fast as the situation improves. If he wants to carry out reforms - particularly those who cringe as the professional tax or carbon tax - he has an interest in presenting a cautious forecast. If, in fact, growth in 2010 exceeding the forecast, this will be twofold reward: he can always explain the stronger than anticipated recovery is the result of government action, and take advantage of renewed activity.

We're still not there. Indicators and casts doubt on the strength of the recovery ahead. So it is with corporate failures : They have increased 12% between July and September 2009 over the same period last year. While the pace is slowing, but still quite high. Among the most common reasons, there are cash flow problems resulting from the failure of a client or a financial structure uncertain.

prices fall: BAD NEWS?

Contrary to popular belief, the decline in prices is not good news. Especially if it settles over time. Worse than an inflationary spiral? A deflationary spiral, and vice versa. On this side, developments are worth closely observed. Certainly, financial markets have experienced a period of rising last summer. But compared to the preliminary crash, prices of financial assets is withdrawn. Side housing prices continue to drop former. President of FNAIM provides a decrease of 7 to 8% for 2009. And consumer prices? It would be an exaggeration to say that they have fallen. In one year, according to Insee, they fell by 0.4%, which corresponds to a form of stability. This is not the future that wage moderation may fuel the future growth of prices ...

Raw materials deserve more attention. (We can not advise the regular reading of our brothers and indexes of quotations). Thus, in its monthly newsletter, OPEC plans to increase its production somewhat in 2009 (84.2 million barrels) and 2010 (84.9 Less barrels). The demand for crude would be fueled by China, the Middle East, India or Latin America.

That one of the last countries where the Communist Party is in control, save the world economy out of deflation, it must be that the German philosopher Hegel called a "cunning of history" ...

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Thursday, October 15, 2009

Card Anniversary Of Death

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